This time next week we will know who won the election, or at least
who is likely to participate in a subsequent run-off election.
This week, those of us who sit on the sidelines . . . and those of
us who schlepp around to the various campaign rallies and candidate
forums can only prognosticate and make an educated guess as to who
the voters will give their nod to.
As we suggested in last week’s commentary, there are only a
few candidates who have a chance at winning.
In the Democratic camp, it is likely to be Francine Busby.
From the Republican camp we see Brian Bilbray, Bill Morrow, Howard
Kaloogian, Eric Roach, Alan Uke and Richard Earnest.
That’s a total of six candidates who have a shot at their party’s
Alan Uke has picked up the endorsement of the North County Times.
We can see why they would endorse him. He’s a brilliantly successful
businessman, persistent, well organized. He has worked for years with
governmental entities to accomplish a goal, the most visible of which
is bringing the aircraft carrier, Midway, to San Diego.
The reason for all this: In a Special Primary for the U.S. House
of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District, as
of 3/28/06, Democrat Francine Busby tops a crowded field of Republicans,
but falls just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff June
6th. With less than a week to the 4/11 Primary, Busby is at 45%, trailed
by Republican Eric Roach at 14%, Republican Howard Kaloogian at 12%,
and Republican Brian Bilbray at 10%. Busby is supported by 85% of
Democrats, half of Independents, and 10% of Republicans. Kaloogian
and Roach are each supported by 23% of Republicans. The district is
heavily Republican and whichever Republican survives the Primary would
be favored in a runoff, but the Democrats have a chance to capture
the seat if Busby can top 50% in the Primary. Busby gets 53% among
female voters. The larger the turnout among women, the better Busby's
chances to avoid a runoff.
As of March 28th, the USA/KGTV Survey showed:
45% Busby (D)
14% Roach (R)
12% Kaloogian (R)
10% Bilbray (R)
5% Morrow (R)
5% Uke (R)
Respected North County Political Consultant, Jack Orr, says:
Despite a ton of money being spent by the Democrat Congressional
Campaign Committee, Busby will not get 50% plus one. As a result,
the General Election in June will be one of the most expensive in
If Busby does not win in June, and I predict she will not, the DNC
and DCCC will pack up and leave her hanging like a cheap suit. Come
November, Busby will be talking about a "virtual" border
fence to a virtual audience in a virtual vacuum.
REALITY CHECK: Surveys rarely influence the way a voter casts his
or her vote. Only a tiny number of voters are still "undecided."
At this point, most of the undecided voters (3%) will probably stay
home or consult a whacked out astrologer.
At least 33% of those who are going to vote have already voted by
mail. Some voters will change their minds in the last few days, but
mostly because of the inevitable "hit pieces" which are
already landing fast and furious. Survey results will have an infinitesimal
effect on voter behavior.
Prediction? The GOP Race will be a photo finish. I see it Roach and
Kaloogian, 1-2. They both will come in with about 12-13% of the vote.
We agree. Roach has spent a lot of money and appears to have taken
the lead. Kaloogian and Bilbray appear to be the closest, with Morrow
dropping off. Uke, we feel, is a highly qualified longshot.